A report released by ExxonMobil predicted that by 2020, diesel fuel demand will surpass that of standard gasoline. The report, which looked to 2040, forecasted oil will remain the world’s foremost fuel source and predicts hybrids will make up 40 percent of the world’s vehicles by 2040. Currently, hybrids represent just 3 percent of new car sales.
The report indicates that natural gas will continue to play a greater role in transportation, but will still hold a small share of the global transportation fuel mix at 4 percent in 2040, which is up from about 1 percent today.
As fuel prices rise, fuel efficiency becomes more and more important. Because of this, cars produced will likely come with greatly improved efficiency, which will allow us to continue using gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. According to the report, cars will average 47 miles per gallon which is 20 mpg higher than the current average. Engine and electrical improvements will play a role in improving the mileage, but lighter frames will also be a catalyst.
The efficiency of newer cars will be aided by the growth of diesel engines, which provide the ability for far more efficiency than gas engines.
In spite of an expected 1.6 billion personal vehicles on the road (up from 800 million), gasoline demand is expected to remain flat because of the improved mileage in new vehicles.
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